Maturity gap

Maturity gap — for any sector, the distance between how organized/branded/institutional the category is in a mature market (US, SG, JP) and how organized it is locally. The scanning heuristic: (1) measure the gap, (2) discount by whether the enabling infrastructure (payments, logistics, credit data, regulation) is now in place locally, (3) size against who’s already trying and whether they’re winning on execution or mere earliness. The gap is the opportunity; the infrastructure is the timing; the competition is the price.

First used in: 5.7 · Emerging-market pattern arbitrage: the payoff skill