Position sizing

Position sizing — deciding how much of your capital any single bet may claim, before the bet’s merits are argued. It’s the discipline that makes speculation survivable: the speculative sleeve’s 5–10% cap is a portfolio-level position size, set while calm, so no thesis, mania, or drawdown can resize it in real time. The underlying math (Kelly): size should scale with edge and certainty — and over-betting a genuinely good bet still destroys long-run growth. Sizing errors, not selection errors, are how winners go broke.

First used in: 2.5 · The speculative sleeve